OBELA Analysis

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has changed the global geopolitical landscape and international trade. With oil prices rising and a risk of global recession, countries are urgently seeking alternatives. This article examines how the Israel-US war against Iran has changed energy trade.

The escalation of war against Iran, ignited on 28 February 2026, has sharpened global concerns over the stability of the international energy and monetary system. After the Yom Kippur War (1973), rising oil profits led to the term ‘petrodollar’. That year, the US made agreements for Saudi surpluses to be reinvested in US assets, a scheme later extended to OPEC.

In 2023, at the BRICS summit – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – in Johannesburg, the inclusion of six new members was proposed: Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia. Only the last four formally joined the group in 2024