ASEAN CCG China Summit, Malaysia

ASEAN CCG China Summit, Malaysia

Carlos Madrid^[1] , OBELA^[2]

The first tripartite meeting between ASEAN, China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) took place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 26-27 May. Some of these countries are part of more than one minilateral body (see Table 1). This article will review the highlights of the summit and outline the possible role that the new alliance could play in the trade war between China and the US, the geopolitical tensions arising from the coup in Myanmar and the common agenda for the next BRICS summit in July. 

ASEAN's population is about 700 million people. Before President Trump's tariff hike, its GDP was expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025, up from 4.2% in 2024.  The group, however, is heavily affected by the reciprocal tariff policy. Myanmar was the worst hit with a rate of 49%, followed by Laos at 48%, Vietnam at 46%, China at 34%, Thailand at 33% and Indonesia at 32%. The intention of the tariffs is to affect China, as the Red Dragon has used this network of countries to produce in Southeast Asia and export to North America without trade restrictions. 

At the meeting chaired by Malaysia, the signing of a trilateral renewable energy export agreement between Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore through offshore wind power generation projects in Vietnam was announced. The agreement is to export to Malaysia and Singapore via undersea cabling through a regional energy cooperation model.

Malaysia's prime minister announced that ASEAN will start negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Gulf countries. This rapprochement has its antecedents in the first ASEAN-GCC summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in 2023. Kuwait's Sheikh Sabah Khaled stressed the importance of such an agreement because "the 16 nations represent immense economic and human power. The sum of the Asean plus GCC countries is a very important oil-exporting bloc in the world. If you add the BRICS countries, they are essentially there. There is a problem however: the Emir of Qatar has just given a presidential jet to the US president in exchange for beefing up his security at Al Oudeid Air Base. It is home to the forward headquarters of the US Air Forces Central Command, Space Forces Headquarters and Special Operations Command Headquarters. Qatar is the GCC's scab and may play a role analogous to that of India in the BRICS.

The summit came out in favour of not ceasing trade relations with either the United States or China, or retaliating against US tariffs. Anwar Abrahim, Malaysia's prime minister, said he has asked President Donald Trump for a meeting to negotiate them. In this way, a neutral policy is being sought in the face of the China-US conflict. However, within ASEAN, there is no consensus on this. Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said that "ASEAN is increasing its dependence and partnership with China and other rivals of the United States".

Chinese Premier Li Qiang sought to make an impact at the summit and present himself as a reliable ally to the region outside of being its main trading partner in the face of the loss of reliability of the region's historical ally. Members such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei have territorial claims that run counter to Beijing's interests in much of the area. China, in turn, has increased its naval presence, which has raised concerns among other countries that previously saw Washington as a potential ally to counterbalance it. China, in its spirit of doing business and not getting involved in domestic politics, did not have much influence on the resolutions.

On the conflict in Myanmar, which began with a coup d'état in 2021, a peaceful ceasefire through dialogue was called for. The conference mentioned that, due to the conflict, Southeast Asian countries are dealing with a growing number of refugees and humanitarian problems while there is an increase in cross-border and cybercrime.

The summit in Malaysia is a milestone at the institutional level as the first tripartite meeting of two Asian blocs and one Asian country. However, at the level of agreements it was somewhat limited, as despite US trade hostility and the presence of the GCC and China, competitors of the US, no concrete measures against the tariff war were agreed, mainly by the surplus countries. It seems that these countries will seek a position of mediation between the two powers, rather than explicitly aligning themselves with some of the spheres of influence. The agreement signed by Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore was a highlight of the meeting, and shows progress on non-Western renewable energy integration . At the next BRICS meeting in Brasilia in July, it will be seen whether the Asian bloc will consolidate further. 

All indications are that the BRICS countries and this new alliance do not want to clash with the US, but neither do they want to let themselves be run over by a hostile state that has broken all their international trade agreements. This leaves them in a position of indefinition and intraregional energy agreements only, waiting for better times. Having the lion's share of the world's oil, however, gives them room for a slow and solid turnaround in their trade and political relations. If the GCC prefers to sell to Asia over the West, there will be an energy market transformation.