análisis por jdiaz

El 10 de diciembre se cumple un año de la gestión de Javier Milei como presidente. Desde su asunción, se llevaron adelante profundas transformaciones que afectaron la realidad cotidiana de todos los argentinos y argentinas.

En términos generales, el gobierno aplicó un muy fuerte ajuste ortodoxo para ordenar algunas variables macroeconómicas con un costo social elevado. La suba del tipo de cambio, de 118%, conjuntamente con la desregulación de vastos sectores de la economía y el incremento significativo de las tarifas de servicios públicos (luz, agua, gas, transporte), tuvieron un sensible impacto en precios (la inflación alcanzó 25,5% en diciembre, 20,6% en enero y 13,2% en febrero) que, sin ningún tipo de compensación de ingresos ni acuerdo de precios implicó una reducción sensible de los ingresos en términos reales.

Por su parte, las principales variables macro parecen haber mejorado. Sin embargo, presentan “pies de barro” en su evolución. Así entonces, las dudas se vinculan con el nivel de apreciación cambiario, los dólares acumulados, el impacto en materia económica sobre sectores industriales, entre otras cuestiones.

A continuación, se realiza una descripción de 10 puntos ilustrativos de lo que sucedió en los últimos 12 meses y algunas perspectivas futuras al respecto.

Mexico is the second-largest economy in Latin America. It has a deep-rooted relationship with the United States through the T-MEC, now affected by the U.S. announcement of unilateral tariffs. It benefits from preferential access to the U.S. market, which has allowed it to export manufactured goods, automobiles, and agricultural products at the cost of importing all the inputs from China to export these products to the North. In the context of the trade war between Washington and the Red Dragon, the tariffs against Mexico prevent Chinese brand products manufactured in the country from entering its market without tariffs. The Aztec country has sought to diversify its relations by exploring trade agreements with other countries and strengthening Asian investment in strategic sectors for domestic purposes. Given the growing importance of the Asian giant in the country, Washington has pressured its southern neighbour to take measures against China, both in terms of tariffs and investment restrictions, considering them a possible risk to U.S. national security. Such policies limit Mexican growth and productive diversification. This article analyses the presence of the Asian giant in trade and investments in the Aztec country and the limits to this relationship due to its alignment with its northern neighbour.

For two decades, China has been transforming its domestic financial architecture into a part of the new international financial architecture, opening the door to a new global order. China's issuance of sovereign bonds in 2024 in Dubai is a significant development. It challenges the narrative that China wants to de-dollarise the world. In its place, it introduces a new order in which the dollar plays a different role. The fact that the U.S. has held the top currency position allowed them to finance their huge deficits despite their poor macroeconomic data, as the world's international reserves are held in U.S. treasury bonds (T-bonds). It has now changed.

La necesidad por mitigar el cambio climático ha llevado a una transición hacia un futuro energético más sostenible que ha desencadenado una revolución en el panorama a nivel global. El cambio de la matriz energética, impulsado por la creciente preocupación por el calentamiento global y la búsqueda de fuentes de energía más limpias y renovables, ha abierto un abanico de oportunidades para inversores.

Foreign policy played a minor role in the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in September. The vice presidential exchange between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz on October 2 barely touched on it. Yet less than a month before the US elections on November 5, it is foreign policy that may upend the Democrats’ chances of winning. Will Trump be able to stamp out the wars of the Biden era with just one telephone call? That is very unlikely, and even two won’t do it. But what the world will be treated to will likely be what was the signature of his foreign policy during his first term: unpredictability.