economic outlook

How 2021 is shaping up

Global inflation is rising rapidly in a year of uneven growth rates, higher than estimated in the US and the European Union (EU), and lower for all but the Asian economies.

The question is why inflation is being discussed when consumer price indices in the US and EU are stable, and what effect these discussions have on international interest rates.

To counteract the inflations produced by these causes, central banks are preparing to readjust interest rates, which are currently at their lowest real levels in decades.

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The world economy towards the end of 2020

The end of the year is approaching and the health and economic crises are still far from being resolved. In the last report of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF re-estimated that the world economy will contract -4.4%, a correction of -1.03% with respect to the June forecast.

In almost all cases, a rebound in its growth rate is expected by 2021. This optimism forgets that several economies were dragging a downward trend in their growth rate, especially the advanced and larger economies.

With Trump's departure, how much does the U.S. and global outlook really change? For the world, what is the real space for transformation to Trump's balances, and for Latin America, what does this scenario represent for its economic and political relations?

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How the pandemic is going in the world economy: first half of 2020

The first half of 2020 is possibly the worst since economic statistics have been published. We do not have the statistics of the first semester of 1872, but it is worse than the first semester of 1930; and it is much worse than the first semester of 2009 or the last semester of 2008.
The Latin American countries with the greatest fall in production were Peru and Mexico, while Brazil fell less. ECLAC reported that industrial production in April fell 14.1% in Chile, 15.1% in Brazil, 20.1% in Colombia, 26.4% in Argentina, 29.3% in Mexico and 40.5% in Peru.
The Asian countries seem to be recovering from a V-shaped crisis while those in Europe, North and South America are going through a U-shaped crisis or perhaps even one with a slower recovery and not reaching the original pre-Covid-19 level. This will have future implications for global economic leadership.

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Impact of COVID-19 in Latin America

Since the recognition of the COVID-19 outbreak in December 2019, several measures of social isolation, suspension of activities and productive unemployment have been implemented. The impacts it has generated have put the world economy in a perspective of economic and social crisis even more complicated than that expected at the end of 2019.

The scenario for Latin America prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 was very complicated. ECLAC recognized in December 2019 that the region was showing a generalized and synchronized economic slowdown.

The virus, in addition to representing a serious global health crisis in itself, had exposed the deep structural limits of the world economy and revealed the vulnerabilities of the accumulation model based on the free market and global production chains.

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Coronavirus, a greater risk to the world than to China

On December 31, 2019, the coronavirus (COVID-19) appeared in Wuhan, China. While this explains the speed of the stock market fall, it is not enough to explain why it resembles the experience of the 2008 - 2009 crisis.
The impact that has been presented cannot be understood without understanding the importance of China in global value chains. China is the source of 5 branches of the world economy: pharmochemistry, automotive, aeronautics, electronics and telecommunications.
What is certain is that the uncertainty about the dynamics of the real economy has impacted on the expectations in the stock markets and on economic growth in the world. The reactivation of production, whenever it occurs, will be slower than the previous dynamics.

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The world economy: economic prospects for 2020

The 2019 has been one of the most complicated in a long time for a number of countries seen from several angles: economic growth; social cohesion; international integration and political crisis. Since the 2008-2009 crisis, there has been stable high growth in Asia and slower growth in the United States, Europe, Latin America and Africa, which has apparently reached a limit

One factor that adds to the trend of economic slowdown is the drop in world trade, caused by the US economic war against China, which is reflected in a decrease in the price of raw materials and energy.

The general trend of the world economy is expected to continue its slow pace in most economies with the clear contrast of the Asian economies that will continue to grow three times faster than the West.

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