Oil prices

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 26 February 2026, following the US attack on Iran, led to a rise in hydrocarbon prices, which in turn increased global inflation. In April 2026, the IMF revised its inflation forecasts upwards. In the most favourable scenario, inflation is expected to reach4.4 per cent, compared with 4.1 per cent in 2025. Although on 14 June the Pakistani government (which is mediating between the US and Iran) announced the possible signing of a memorandum of understanding and a 60-day ceasefire, the effects on hydrocarbon prices will persist at least for the remainder of 2026.