CLIMATE IN LATIN AMERICA: CLIMATE CHANGE, HARVESTS AND EL NIÑO
Gabriela Ramírez[1] , OBELA[2]
According to Copernicus data (the EU’s Earth observation programme), 2025 ranked as the third hottest year on record. Temperatures were just 0.01°C lower than in 2023 and 0.13°C lower than in 2024. From 2023 to 2025, global average temperatures exceeded pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) by over 1.5°C. This marked the first three-year period above this threshold, which the Paris Agreement set as a limit to avoid. This trend continued into 2026. The combination of these temperatures and the El Niño phenomenon will significantly affect Latin America’s weather and crop prospects in the second half of 2026.
Extreme weather events in the region, exacerbated by climate change, were also varied and non-uniform. Mexico was hit by a severe heatwave in the north with temperatures reaching 50°C, whilst the south was battered by torrential rain and flooding. Hurricane Melissa, which intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in a single day, made landfall in Jamaica before affecting Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. It left 90 people dead in its wake, as well as $8.8 billion in losses. Peru, meanwhile, experienced significant cold spells, with a minimum temperature of 10.4°C in the Amazon region. In Brazil, southern Chile, and northern Patagonia in Argentina, persistent heatwaves were accompanied by severe droughts. In parts of southern Argentina, rainfall fell by up to 40%; Chilean forests suffered wildfires; and some Brazilian cities recorded temperatures over 40°C.
According to information from the World Meteorological Organisation, these climatic events affected agri-food systems and jeopardised food security in the region. In Mexico, maize production in 2025 fell for the second consecutive year, with yields 14% below average due to drought. In Haiti, more than 33,000 hectares of crops were flooded; in Jamaica, at least 149,000 hectares were affected, as well as numerous farms, greenhouses and livestock facilities; and in Cuba, losses were reported in plantations of bananas, maize, cassava, coffee and other vegetables. In Argentina, the floods limited both access to fresh food and the incomes of rural households dependent on agriculture. Finally, in Peru and Bolivia, the floods disrupted productive infrastructure and market access, putting food availability at risk nationwide.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) forecasts that harvests in Mexico will continue to decline due to dry conditions in the north-western region of the country, particularly for maize. On the other hand, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay are expected to receive adequate rainfall, boosting maize yields. Whilst rainfall in Chile, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador has improved soil moisture conditions, the area under cultivation will be reduced following the 2025 price decline due to two consecutive years of above-average harvests.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña are the warm and cold phases of a natural Pacific cycle. The planet typically alternates between them every 2 to 7 years. This changes ocean temperatures, winds, and tropical rainfall. El Niño reduces the sea’s heat absorption and raises atmospheric temperatures.
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Figure 1. Historical record of the ENSO phenomenon. |
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Source: The Climate Brink. |
As shown in Figure 1, El Niño is expected to develop in late 2026 and raise temperatures by more than 2.5°C above the pre-industrial average. According to the UNAM
Climate Change Research Programme, climate change has altered ENSO patterns; in other words, El Niño will cause more intense and frequent extreme weather events, whilst climate change has already altered its pattern of occurrence. A warmer environment means there is more water vapour in the atmosphere, so rainfall will be more intense; in turn, the rise in temperature will lead to longer-lasting and more severe droughts.
Escalating, more frequent extreme weather and a high risk of a powerful El Niño will damage agriculture, health, and food security in Latin America and beyond. Crop losses from drought, floods, or fires will drive prices higher; water shortages will inflate trade and energy costs; and disasters will hit vulnerable populations hardest. Climate change is no longer an outlier; it is the prevailing reality.
