Hot and dry climate: global warming in 2025

Hot and dry climate: global warming in 2025

Gabriela Ramírez[1] , OBELA[2]

The year 2024 broke both land and ocean temperature records, being the warmest in 175 observable years and breaking the 1.5°C barrier set by the Paris Agreement to contain the devastating effects of climate change. All indications are that the trends of heat, pollution and extreme weather events will continue in 2025. This article will discuss the consequences of global warming on food security and food prices in Latin America.

            According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2023 had the highest concentration of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (the main greenhouse gases) in the last 800,000 years. Recent data show that during 2024 the emission of these gases increased.

Graph 1. Concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere (2000-February 2025) ppm

As can be seen in the graph, the first months of 2025 show a continuous increase in CO₂ concentration. Both methane and nitrous oxide follow the carbon dioxide trend, so their emissions are expected to rise in the same way for the rest of the year. 

            China, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has decreased its demand for fossil fuels since 2024. According to the International Energy Agency, combined consumption of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel was lower by 2.5% from 2021. Chinese demand for these three fuels is lower than U.S. demand for gasoline alone. The agency forecasts that the Asian giant will keep its fossil fuel consumption down through 2025. If they continue with this pattern, they will reach their peak emissions before 2030, unlike other nations. However, this is insufficient to cope with global warming.

The increase in greenhouse gas emissions (despite China's small efforts) accelerates climate change and, therefore, the extreme weather events that accompany the environmental debacle. An example of this was the exceptional droughts that hit northern Mexico, parts of Central America and the Caribbean, the Amazon and the Pantanal, as well as central and northern Argentina and Chile in 2024.

These dry conditions threaten food security in the region. According to FAO, global cereal production in 2024 contracted by 0.5% compared to 2023. While improved Argentine and Brazilian harvests helped bolster Latin American numbers, the region was dented by low yield levels in Mexico and Central America (due to drought).

For Mexico, the corn crop decreased for the third consecutive year to 23.7 million tons in 2024. Dry conditions in northern Mexico, especially in Sinaloa which is the main grain producer, have caused its production projections to drop by close to 80%. The shortage of irrigation water weakened winter plantings. In addition, the central regions of the country have below-average rainfall forecasts for the second quarter of 2025.

Argentina is projected to have low corn yields due to the drought. The lack of rainfall, together with the spread of bacterial diseases, deterred farmers from planting as usual, so the planted area was reduced by 15%. In Peru, due to dry conditions in the coastal areas, agricultural production in the valleys will also be reduced.

Brazil, on the other hand, looks set to recover ground in rice production after losses in 2024 due to flooding in the south of the country. The price of the grain rose, which led to an increase in the cultivated area. Rainfall is forecast as usual in the areas of production. Colombia and Bolivia, also due to drought, will have an impact on their cultivated areas and consequently on their cereal yields.

The pressure exerted by the lack of water on crops and, therefore, on food prices is not a distant problem. One example is coffee, one of the most widely consumed beverages in the world, whose beans have become approximately 40% more expensive. Dry weather in regions of Vietnam and Brazil (responsible for 50% of world production of the bean) caused production to fall considerably, by 20% and 5.5%, respectively. 

The continuing effects of global warming are unsustainable and will worsen as governments ignore, as they have so far, the profound effects on the quality of life of all beings on the planet. Climate change, if not addressed, will aggravate and universalize famine (which, so far, does not appear as an imminent threat, but is increasingly latent). The need to address environmental issues is urgent.