CLIMATE MITIGATION: UNCHANGED
Gabriela Ramírez, OBELA
During 2024, the planet, specifically the northern hemisphere, showed worrying temperature anomalies. After record-breaking summer heat, the scientific community is confident that 2024 will be the hottest year on record. Droughts and forest fires remained the most prevalent weather phenomena during the first six months of Year 24, but they are not the only weather events exacerbated by climate change.
Temperature measurements from January to October 2024 have been listed as the warmest year on record (since measurements began 175 years ago). It was 1.28C° warmer than the 1901-2000 average of 14.1C°. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is no reason to believe that conditions will likely be conducive to a drop in the average temperature between November and December.
The problem is that the previous year was the hottest day on record. 2023 held the evidence for being the warmest when it beat 2016 by 0.17°C. Every month in the second half of 2023 was warmer than any corresponding month in previous years, with July and August being the two months with the highest records.
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Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
As we can see in the image, the greatest concentration of upward temperature anomalies falls in the last forty years, with an emphasis on 2023 and, of course, 2024. According to Copernicus, year 24 was the warmest year and the first year to exceed the 1.5°C barrier above pre-industrial levels, a threshold considered as a limit to avoid massive biodiversity loss.
In the month of October 2024, record-breaking temperatures came from around the globe—much of the Arctic, as well as large parts of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. On the Asian continent, India and Pakistan experienced extremely dry weather, as did small parts of the African continent and the American South. North America had its warmest October, South America had its second, Europe had its fourth, Asia had fifth, and Africa had tenth.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The planet's waters were also affected. The mean sea surface temperature reached 20.68°C, the second highest on record for the month, only 0.10°C below the October 2023 temperature. Temperatures were below average in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, but ocean surface temperatures remained unusually high in many regions.
In terms of sea ice, the Arctic reached its fourth lowest extent during October at 19% below average. Sea ice concentration anomalies were well below average in all seas surrounding the Arctic Ocean, especially the Barents Sea (in Norway and Russia), the Canadian archipelago and northern Svalbard (in Norway). Over the past four decades, which coincide with the period of temperature anomalies, satellites have recorded a consistent trend: more melting in the summer and a reduction in ice formation over the course of the winter.
The ice is shrinking, and the ice that survives is very young. According to the NASA Space Flight Center's Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, the overwhelming majority of ice in the Arctic Ocean is thinner (probably one year old), which has a lower capacity to survive the warmer months. There is currently less chance of finding three-years-old or older ice.
Hurricane season
A number of weather events attracted attention throughout 2024, but those involving water were the most prominent during the second half of the year. In late September, Hurricane John landed in Mexico, a territory already hit by a category-five hurricane almost a year earlier. For four days, the Acapulco weather station in Guerrero recorded 80 per cent of the water it usually receives in a year.
In the United States, two hurricanes struck parts of its southeast coast within two weeks of each other in late September and early October. The first to hit, Helene, was ranked as the second deadliest behind only Hurricane Katrina. In its wake, it left loss of life and utility outages and even changed the course of a river in North Carolina. Milton, the second hurricane to make landfall in the United States, gained strength quickly. It began as a tropical storm on 5 October and, by 7 October, was a category five hurricane. Its winds increased from 129 km/h to 282 km/h in just 24 hours.
Climate change had a significant impact on the severity of these events. According to Imperial College London, warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico aided the rapid intensification of both Helene and Milton. Global warming increased their wind speeds by 10-11%. In a world without climate change, Milton would have made landfall as a category 2, not a category 3. In addition, 44% of the economic damage caused by Helene and 45% caused by Milton may result from the environmental debacle.
On the other side of the world, on the Iberian Peninsula, a monthly rainfall record was reached, fed by low pressure in the Strait of Gibraltar. As a result, rain systems were created within a few hours and remained practically stationary over the Spanish provinces of Valencia, Cuenca, Albacete and Murcia. They left nearly 200 people dead and caused rivers and streams to burst their banks. Spain's State Meteorological Agency reports that rainfall records at several stations in the region show that rainfall on a single day was equivalent to a third, or even half in some locations, of the average annual amount. World Weather Attribution claims climate change intensified Spain's rainfall by 12% and made it twice as likely in the future.
The limits of nature
The Global Carbon Budget, a climate change research group established at the University of Exeter, estimates that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will reach an all-time high by the end of 2024. The record, sustained by the continued use of fossil fuels, will be 37 billion tonnes, 0.8% higher than in 2023.
Despite the need to reduce emissions to combat climate change, scientists point out that there is no evidence yet that fossil CO2 emissions have already peaked. Projections are that emissions from both fossil fuels and land-use change will increase. Drought conditions also exacerbated those from fires related to deforestation and forest degradation.
Oceans, forests and soils serve as carbon sinks. These ecosystems absorb about half of human emissions. With global warming, there are concerns that nature will absorb less and less of the CO2 we humans emit. In 2023, preliminary results from an international team of researchers show that the amount of carbon absorbed by the Earth temporarily plummeted. It may be evidence that nature is beginning to show signs of reaching the limits of its resilience.
An example is the melting of glaciers in Greenland and the Arctic ice sheets. Due to the rapidity of this process (fuelled by global warming), ocean currents alter, and the rate at which the oceans absorb carbon. Zooplankton - creatures that feed on algae - are exposed to more sunlight than they should be, which could keep them in the deep ocean for longer and disrupt the vertical migration that stores carbon on the sea floor.
Failure in Baku?
The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan (oil-rich Azerbaijan), led to an agreement on climate finance. A framework for a global carbon market now exists, allowing countries to trade carbon credits to incentivise carbon emission reductions and invest in sustainable projects. There is no evidence to be confident that this will work.
They also agreed to raise at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to replace the previous target of $100 billion, expiring in 2025, which seems unlikely to be met. These funds mean helping emerging countries adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change. However, the Global South criticised this amount as inadequate for nations' challenges. Solutions are nowhere in sight, given its non-existence and the G7's lack of political will. So far, China is the only country that can peak its emissions shortly, thus leading nations on the path to decarbonisation.
Human-induced climate change significantly impacts natural, economic, and social systems. The consequences are increasingly evident and disruptive, from rising global temperatures to intensifying droughts, floods and extreme weather events. Despite scientific advances in understanding the climate problem and isolated efforts to mitigate its effects, measures have not been sufficient to address the issue.
The Paris Agreement and other international commitments highlight the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, yet the evidence shows that this target is far from being met. The challenges of human-induced global warming are a systemic problem that requires both immediate and long-term action. Inaction will maintain and further aggravate the impacts of climate events and limit potential solutions.
