OBELA Analysis

The outbreak of COVID-19 began in China in late December 2019, with quarantine and confinement beginning in January. The health regulations stopped many global value chains, mainly those of pharmaceuticals, automobiles, aeronautics, electronics and telecommunications.

Faced with the problem, the Chinese government immediately implemented policies to prevent the economy from collapsing. What happened to the economy during the pandemic? Has it recovered?

Economic policy actions have mitigated the downturn and boosted the recovery of the Chinese economy. This makes it the only country in the world with a reliable "V" shape recovery, with real quarterly growth annualized in 2020.

The World Bank reported that, as a result of the economic downturn caused by the COVID pandemic, 2020 would see the worst drop in remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean in history. Remittances represent one-fifth of the GDP of El Salvador and Honduras, one-tenth for Guatemala and Nicaragua and less than 5% for Belize, Mexico, Costa Rica and Panama.

In March 2020, Latin American unemployment was 6% and tripled in the face of the pandemic to 18.9% in April. Women were the most affected. Nevertheless, remittances to Mexico and Central America recovered as of June. Why so soon?

The World Bank's projections are not being met, fortunately for Mexican, Central and South American families. What is seen is that being a migrant and being precarious are synonymous and that in case of any drop in production they are the first group to be unemployed, but in some cases with a faster recovery.

An increase in demand and use of land passenger transport has been observed. Its electrification is considered a plus for the environment and the economy. However, there is a debate about whether to take advantage of the lithium present on the ground or to invest in hydrogen production.

What is the best alternative in order to protect the environment and slow down climate change? Hydrogen is the most abundant and lightest element on Earth, but its molecule does not occur naturally in isolation. Lithium, different from H2, can be found in specific deposits. The most important is the "Lithium Triangle".

At present, there is no perfect energy source. Environmentally, the best alternative is H2 from water, which does not generate any pollutant after combustion. Its problem is that it is not yet economically or energetically viable.