USA

The year began with a forecast of stagnation in inflation for the United States, while Asian countries expect to continue growing. The IMF forecast for the world was that the US would grow at a rate of 2.7%, while the global economy would expand at 3.3%, dragged down by Asia and emerging countries. However, early data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indicated that the US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter, a concerning sign for the global economic situation.

On 2 April 2025, President Trump announced his policy of reciprocal tariffs. The term “reciprocal” implies others have tariffs against US goods, which is mistaken and misleading. Its fiscal problem is home made. Non the less, he imposed a universal base tariff of 10%, including on products within free trade agreements (such as the one with Chile and Peru), and imposed higher rates on some countries, such as China. Although the US Government paused the entry into force of the latter for 90 days -some time in May- the region's main economies have reacted. This article will discuss the different measures taken by Brazil, Argentina and Mexico.

Mexico is the second-largest economy in Latin America. It has a deep-rooted relationship with the United States through the T-MEC, now affected by the U.S. announcement of unilateral tariffs. It benefits from preferential access to the U.S. market, which has allowed it to export manufactured goods, automobiles, and agricultural products at the cost of importing all the inputs from China to export these products to the North. In the context of the trade war between Washington and the Red Dragon, the tariffs against Mexico prevent Chinese brand products manufactured in the country from entering its market without tariffs. The Aztec country has sought to diversify its relations by exploring trade agreements with other countries and strengthening Asian investment in strategic sectors for domestic purposes. Given the growing importance of the Asian giant in the country, Washington has pressured its southern neighbour to take measures against China, both in terms of tariffs and investment restrictions, considering them a possible risk to U.S. national security. Such policies limit Mexican growth and productive diversification. This article analyses the presence of the Asian giant in trade and investments in the Aztec country and the limits to this relationship due to its alignment with its northern neighbour.