OBELA Analysis

The United States slowed, but without entering a recession. The economy cooled in the first two quarters, and the third-quarter data released by the BEA are unreliable because the offices that handled the work were closed for two months. On the other hand, the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) was dismissed and replaced by someone close to the president's political group, who may repeat the pattern of distorting statistics to favour the regime, as seen in Latin American and African countries in previous years.

According to J. G. Ruggie, "Multilateralism consists of coordinating national policies among groups of three or more states, whether through ad hoc arrangements or through international institutions." The United States was the driving force behind multilateralism during the Second World War, seeking mechanisms for the political resolution of conflicts. It promoted the creation of the Atlantic Charter (1941), the United Nations (1944), the Washington-based institutions—the IMF and the World Bank (1945)—and, later, the International Trade Organisation, known through its derivative, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, 1947).

Since the 1990s and until 2025, the USA was the cornerstone of international free trade, framed by the establishment of the WTO (1995). From the 2000s, a rise in the twin deficits (fiscal and trade, see Graph 1) was observed, partly explained by the 2008 crisis, the growth of China, and the loss of competitiveness against it. The opening up of trade decentralised the US industry, due to the creation of global value chains, which relocated industries previously established in the USA to China, to become part of international manufacturing.