OBELA Analysis

The year began with a forecast of stagnation in inflation for the United States, while Asian countries expect to continue growing. The IMF forecast for the world was that the US would grow at a rate of 2.7%, while the global economy would expand at 3.3%, dragged down by Asia and emerging countries. However, early data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indicated that the US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter, a concerning sign for the global economic situation.

The first tripartite meeting between ASEAN, China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) took place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 26-27 May. Some of these countries are part of more than one minilateral body (see Table 1). This article will review the highlights of the summit and outline the possible role that the new alliance could play in the trade war between China and the US, the geopolitical tensions arising from the coup in Myanmar and the common agenda for the next BRICS summit in July.

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are various scenarios of global socioeconomic changes projected by the IPCC up to 2100. These scenarios are structured around five different narratives representing possible socioeconomic evolution paths: Sustainable Development, Regional Competition, Rising Inequality, Fossil Fuel Dependency, and Moderate Development. This article will describe these pathways and what they mean.