OBELA Analysis

The discussion on the state of the Mexican economy has ceased to matter in general policy discussions within the country and is not the subject of international conferences. There is a tacit agreement among academia, different actors, and political sectors that maintaining an inflation rate and fiscal deficit at "acceptable" levels matters.

There are at least four axes to look at in 2025. One first is the conflict between the great powers, where the US increased its offensive against China's production and trade. The trade war unleashed in March 2018 by Trump himself will have diverse consequences for the world. The second axis is climate change, which will have an impact on the prices of the food basket. It is an already present issue aggravated by drought floods and climate change in general. The third is the continuation of the open attack on international regulatory institutions by Washington. The fourth axis is the energy competition between the great powers and its derivative effects.