OBELA Analysis

Humanity is facing the worst economic crisis since 1872 on record, while the main financial indices are reaching historic highs. Is the real economy detached from the financial markets? What does this imply?

By observing the relationship between the S&P 500 and the US GDP it is evident how the growth of the index exceeded the growth of the product, as well as the adjustments that took place in the dotcom crisis (2000) and the financial crisis of 2008.

The increase in the indexes does not reflect the dynamics of the economy as a whole. Technology and the internet are leading growth, while in the energy sector the change in its energy matrix and the expected transition in energy consumption and production are being addressed.

The president of the United States launched a direct attack on the multilateral organizations responsible for preserving peace and coexistence among nations and the international economic order. After four years in office, he has weakened the multilateral order without any alternative. International relations are approaching a critical point.

The abandonment and confrontation with multilateral institutions, undertaken by the United States, has weakened the world order. In the face of the most serious economic crisis of capitalism and an unresolved global health crisis, international cooperation has to move forward without the U.S., or even in spite of it.

The critical point for multilateralism is not only the U.S. presidential elections next November. The horizon of Pax Americana multilateralism is about to end. In the face of this crisis, a new era of cooperation and international relations has begun with different structures, new economic forces and the important involvement of China with other emerging economies.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has a long history. Ever since the Inter-American Conferences of 1889, the need for a bank with these characteristics has always been mentioned. Since 1959, with the beginning of the Cuban Revolution, the United States began the creation of the IDB and the Alliance for Progress.

Since then, we have seen illegal US intervention in Nicaragua, Grenada, Honduras, Paraguay, Brazil and, more recently, Bolivia and Venezuela. All this forgets what was agreed upon in 1889 at the Inter-American Conference: sovereignty and not rights by conquest.

The IDB is about to be intervened by an official of the US National Security Council at the request of the President, the Secretary of State and the Secretary of the Treasury. The reasons are to stop China's presence as a financier in Latin America, and to conclude the overthrow of uncomfortable governments that are not aligned with US power in the hemisphere.