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Evergrande is not Lehman Brothers: beware the us budget extension

Evergrande is a conglomerate that managed to become the largest real estate developer in China, driven by the accelerated population growth of China's cities. It now has a debt equivalent to 2% of China's GDP, around 2 trillion yuan or USD 309 billion.

Like the entire real estate sector, Evergrande used to take loans with land as collateral. This type of cycle stops when property prices stagnate or when the government regulates prepayment, as happened in China.

Recently it has been warned that it could be a trigger for a possible international financial collapse and has been compared to Lehman Brothers (2008). However, the situation is different: the bulk of the debt is within the Chinese financial system, which is closed to international investment, and only 26% of the total debt is owed to international investors.

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COVID-19, its impact on women's lives

The pandemic has not only affected public health but also the social, political and economic life of society, deepening existing inequalities. The effects of the COVID-19 crisis have been felt most by vulnerable groups, especially women.

Worldwide, it is estimated that the pandemic has affected approximately 80% of professional women, who are affected in their professional lives as well as in their family and personal spheres. In Latin America, more than half of women work in the sectors most affected by the economic contraction, such as domestic work, tourism, manufacturing, administrative services and the health sector.

COVID-19 has a strong influence on the labor and personal development of women in the world, and makes the inequalities experienced by women even more evident.

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COVID-19, su impacto en la vida de las mujeres

La pandemia no solo ha afectado la salud pública sino también la vida social, política y económica de la sociedad, profundiza las desigualdades ya existentes. Los efectos de la crisis por COVID-19 han sido más resentidos por los grupos vulnerables, especialmente el de las mujeres.

A nivel mundial se estima que la pandemia ha afectado a aproximadamente el 80% de las mujeres profesionistas, a quienes impacta tanto en la vida profesional como en la esfera familiar y personal. En América Latina, más de la mitad de las mujeres laboran en los sectores más afectados por la contracción económica tales como el trabajo doméstico, el turismo, la manufactura, servicios administrativos y sector salud.

La COVID-19 influye duramente en el desenvolvimiento laboral y personal de las mujeres en el mundo, y hace aún más evidentes las desigualdades vividas por ellas.

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desigualdad de género

Latin america's post-pandemic energy transition

The global change of the energy matrix gained momentum in the 2010s thanks to technological advances for electricity generation with renewable energies; international agreements in favor of the environment; and climate change.

Latin American countries are in the process of changing the global energy matrix and have had several advances. The COVID-19 pandemic paralyzed the world and the economy. Latin America was no exception and it seems that this may have slowed down renewable energies.

The energy transition in Latin America is underway. Government incentives and continued Chinese investments and loans will be key to its development.

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La transición energética latinoamericana pospandémica

El cambio global de la matriz energética tomó fuerza en la década del 2010 gracias a los avances tecnológicos para la generación eléctrica con energías renovables; los acuerdos internacionales a favor del medio ambiente y; el cambio climático.

Los países de América Latina están en el proceso del cambio de matriz energética mundial y ha tenido diversos avances. La pandemia de la COVID-19 paralizó al mundo y la economía. Latinoamérica no fue la excepción y parece que esto pudo frenar a las energías renovables.

La transición energética en América Latina está en marcha. Los incentivos de los gobiernos y la continuidad de las inversiones y los prestamos chinos serán clave para su desarrollo.

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The global minimum tax rate

In July 2021, the OECD and G20 countries presented the "Declaration on a two-pillar solution to address the fiscal challenges arising from the digitalization of the economy" that aims to alleviate the fiscal pressures arising from the covid-19 crisis and adapt to the digitalization of the economy. The structure of the tax reform will be based on two pillars.

Pillar one seeks to develop profit tax rules for companies that are highly digitized and conduct operations around the world. While, Pillar two continues BEPS taxation efforts with the introduction of a global minimum tax regime.

The implementation of these rules will help to improve economic recovery in countries that face difficulties in their tax collection, such as Latin American countries.

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Tasa impositiva mínima global

En julio de 2021, los países de la OCDE y el G20 presentaron la “Declaración sobre una solución basada en dos pilares para afrontar los retos fiscales derivados de la digitalización de la economía” que pretende aliviar las presiones fiscales derivadas de la crisis por el covid-19 y adaptarse a la digitalización de la economía. La estructura de la reforma fiscal se basará en dos pilares.

El Pilar uno busca desarrollar normas de impuestos sobre los beneficios para las empresas que están altamente digitalizadas y realizan operaciones alrededor del mundo. Mientras que, con el Pilar dos se continua con los esfuerzos de fiscalización de los BEPS con la introducción de un régimen fiscal mínimo global.

La implementación de estas reglas ayudará a una mejor recuperación económica en los países que enfrentan dificultades en su recaudación, como son los latinoamericanos.

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La guerra de EE.UU. en contra de la tecnología 5G China

Pese al cambio de gobierno en EE.UU., la política y acciones emprendidas respecto a la contención tecnológica china se mantienen intactas, se continúa con la presión internacional para evitar que las compañías chinas instalen sus tecnologías de transición digital.

La guerra tecnológica y los temores estadounidenses han tenido un impacto marginal en la relaciones del gigante asiático con América Latina. Algunos países se han sometido a las presiones de Washington contra el uso de la 5G, pero la mayoria continúa en negociaciones para su puesta en marcha.

Los retos que América Latina debe remontar para poner en funcionamiento esta tecnología se refieren a la falta de infraestructura y el tamaño de la inversión.

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The US war on chinese 5G technology

Despite the change of government in the U.S., the policy and actions taken with respect to Chinese technological containment remain intact, and international pressure continues to prevent Chinese companies from installing their digital transition technology.

The technology war and U.S. fears have had a marginal impact on the Asian giant's relations with Latin America. Some countries have bowed to Washington's pressure against the use of 5G, but most continue to negotiate its implementation.

The challenges that Latin America must overcome to put this technology into operation relate to the lack of infrastructure and the size of the investment.

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Private consumption, the internal engine of the economy

Latin American economies continue to recover thanks to the momentum of external and domestic demand. In some countries, both engines are warming up in coordination, while in others, the external one recovered faster. In several countries in the region, fiscal policies were implemented to reactivate domestic demand.
GDP is returning to its pre-pandemic levels thanks to the impulse of the main trading partners of Latin American countries and the price of raw materials, and to the support in monetary transfers to families and companies.
According to IMF estimates, Latin America's GDP will decrease 8.3% in 2020, while South America 8% and the Caribbean Basin 9.9% will be the most affected. Growth in 2021 will be higher in the southern countries than in the Basin, 3.8% and 3% respectively. With the return of international trade, the speed of recovery depends on domestic demand.

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