OBELA Analysis

Since 2013, the New Silk Road initiative is a Chinese megaproject that seeks to connect 4 continents through land and maritime trade routes. More than 90 billion dollars have been invested in 57 countries in four continents.
Latin America is part of the Chinese expansion strategy. Through investment and loans for the development of infrastructure for trade and energy projects, China has established itself in the region and wants to dispute it with the USA.
In this context, the Pacific and Atlantic maritime routes of the continent become important for the expansion of the Asian country. From Mexico to Uruguay, China already controls docks and has projects for new ports.

One year after the global closure due to COVID-19, exchange rates responded to financial markets more than to macroeconomic conditions. This is due to the depth that financialization has reached in the economy and the influence that the Fed's policies have on international markets.

Unlike the textbooks, where exchange rates are a reflection of economic growth, inflation and international reserves, the relationship of the exchange rate with these national variables is increasingly questionable.

Central bank intervention in exchange rates has been minimal. When the exchange rate responds more to financial variables than to real ones, the depth and degree of development of each country's financial sector is more important.

Central America was the region most affected by the supply and demand crisis in the Americas. However, there was a great disparity in the declines of each country. There are two groups, the first lost less than seven years of production, and the second more than ten.
The lost production years are calculated by comparing real GDP in the second quarter of 2020, when social distancing measures were implemented in the Americas, with the quarterly GDP closest to its value.
In the least affected countries, it was migrant labor and the anchoring with the U.S. economy, via the maquila, that allowed them to lose few years of production and to recover more than half of the lost years.